---
title: "The Fed's Barkin Says Inflation Is Still Too High — Even as He Spots Relief"
description: "Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin called US inflation 'too high' on Sunday, with the Fed's favored gauge running at 4.1% — but said he sees relief coming as oil prices fall and consumers push back on rising prices. The catch: the oil relief he welcomed is exactly what this weekend's renewed Iran tensions threaten to reverse."
category: "Economy"
category_url: https://boursel.com/category/economy
author: "Olivia Chen"
published: 2026-06-29T00:43:40.000Z
updated: 2026-06-29T00:43:40.000Z
canonical: https://boursel.com/article/feds-barkin-says-inflation-is-still-too-high-even-as-he-spots-relief
tags: ["federal-reserve", "inflation", "barkin", "interest-rates", "oil"]
---
# The Fed's Barkin Says Inflation Is Still Too High — Even as He Spots Relief

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin called US inflation 'too high' on Sunday, with the Fed's favored gauge running at 4.1% — but said he sees relief coming as oil prices fall and consumers push back on rising prices. The catch: the oil relief he welcomed is exactly what this weekend's renewed Iran tensions threaten to reverse.

A Federal Reserve official has put a number on the central bank's discomfort. Speaking Sunday on the sidelines of the Aspen Ideas Festival, **Tom Barkin**, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said US inflation remains uncomfortably high — but pointed to early signs it may be cooling, [Fortune reported](https://fortune.com/2026/06/28/richmond-fed-tom-barkin-high-inflation-oil-prices-relief/).

## The number that worries the Fed

Barkin cited the **PCE price index** — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, which tracks what households actually spend — running at **4.1% over the year through May**, its highest since April 2023 and roughly double the Fed's **2% target**. "Those numbers are too high," he said. (The Federal Reserve aims to keep inflation near 2%; persistently above that, it tends to keep interest rates high to cool the economy.) The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at its June meeting, and a growing number of policymakers have warned it may even need to **raise** rates this year if prices don't relent.

## Where he sees relief — and the catch

Barkin's optimism rested heavily on **energy**. He said he was "heartened by a rapid decline in gasoline prices" in his district as oil fell **following the recent US-Iran ceasefire**, and argued that "price pressure from tariffs and the oil shock should now be waning, helping inflation cool."

Here is the problem, and it is a live one. Barkin spoke just as that ceasefire was **coming apart**. Over the same weekend, the US and Iran resumed trading airstrikes, and oil prices turned back up as the war-risk premium returned — the very development Boursel leads with tonight. In other words, the oil relief Barkin was counting on to bring inflation down is precisely what the renewed Middle East flare-up now puts in doubt. Energy is the swing factor in his case for cooling, and it has started swinging the wrong way again.

## The second source of relief

Barkin's other encouraging sign was sturdier: **consumers are resisting**. Companies that pushed prices up aggressively, he said, are running into stiff customer pushback, which limits how much further they can raise prices — and he noted businesses turning cautious on wage increases, easing the risk of a **wage-price spiral** (the loop in which rising wages and prices chase each other). That kind of demand-side discipline doesn't depend on the Strait of Hormuz.

## Why it matters for you

Barkin is one voice on the Fed, not its chair, so this is a read on the debate rather than a policy decision. But the debate has real stakes for households: as long as inflation sits near 4% and officials worry about an energy-driven rebound, the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates soon — keeping **mortgage rates, credit-card costs and business borrowing** elevated. The takeaway from Barkin's remarks is a careful one: inflation may be easing at the edges, helped by cooler oil and pickier shoppers, but the path back to 2% is neither quick nor assured — and this weekend's events are a reminder of how fast one of his key reasons for hope can evaporate.

## Sources

- [Fed's Barkin warns of high inflation, but sees signs of relief](https://fortune.com/2026/06/28/richmond-fed-tom-barkin-high-inflation-oil-prices-relief/)