--- title: "Stocks Edge Up as the Iran Truce Holds While Oil's War Premium Drains Away" description: "US stock futures rose modestly on Monday and European markets were mixed as a fragile US-Iran ceasefire steadied nerves. Oil, which has given back most of its war-driven spike to trade near $70, tells the real story: relief, tempered by the risk that the truce breaks. Next test — Thursday's US jobs report." category: "Markets" category_url: https://boursel.com/category/markets author: "Marcus Feldman" published: 2026-06-29T08:44:20.000Z updated: 2026-06-29T08:44:20.000Z canonical: https://boursel.com/article/stocks-edge-up-as-the-iran-truce-holds-while-oils-war-premium-drains-away tags: ["markets", "stocks", "oil", "iran", "dollar", "jobs"] --- # Stocks Edge Up as the Iran Truce Holds While Oil's War Premium Drains Away US stock futures rose modestly on Monday and European markets were mixed as a fragile US-Iran ceasefire steadied nerves. Oil, which has given back most of its war-driven spike to trade near $70, tells the real story: relief, tempered by the risk that the truce breaks. Next test — Thursday's US jobs report. Markets opened the week in a cautious risk-on mood. **US stock-index futures edged higher** on Monday — with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq contracts modestly up — as the **US-Iran ceasefire** struck over the weekend held, [Seeking Alpha reported](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4607940-us-stock-futures-advance-on-middle-east-de-escalation-oil-supply-concerns-linger). European markets were **mixed to slightly higher**, with investors keeping one eye on the Middle East. The tone was relief, not euphoria. ## Oil tells the real story The clearest signal is in **crude**. Brent and US **West Texas Intermediate** were little changed on the day, hovering around the **low-$70s and roughly $70** respectively — but the striking move is over the past week and month: oil has **fallen sharply**, shedding most of the **"war premium"** it built up during the conflict, as shipping resumed through the **Strait of Hormuz** and supply fears eased. Crude is back near its lowest levels since before the latest escalation. A **war premium** is the extra margin traders price into oil when they fear supply disruption. Its rapid unwind says the market now believes the worst-case — a blockade of Hormuz, through which a large share of the world's seaborne oil passes — has become less likely for now. That matters beyond energy: **cheaper oil eases inflation pressure**, removing one headwind for central banks. The caveat is plain — if the truce collapses, the premium can snap back just as fast. ## The dollar caps a strong month The other big mover is the **US dollar**, which is closing out its **best month in nearly a year**, [as Boursel reported](https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/dollar-poised-for-best-month-in-nearly-a-year-eyes-on-jobs-data-gulf-tension-4764198). The greenback has been lifted by **safe-haven demand** during the Middle East scare and by a **hawkish Federal Reserve** signaling — at its June meeting — that it may keep interest rates high, or even raise them, rather than cut. With **inflation still above the Fed's 2% target**, dollar assets that pay more interest have pulled in global money. ## Why Thursday matters The week's pivot point is the **US June jobs report** (nonfarm payrolls), due **Thursday, July 2**. Economists expect a **slowdown** from May's pace of job creation. The read-through is direct: a **soft** number would strengthen the case for the Fed to ease and could take some steam out of the dollar; a **strong** one would reinforce the higher-for-longer message. (Figures here are forecasts; the jobs print routinely moves stocks, bonds and the dollar.) ## The bottom line Three forces are pulling on markets at once: a **fragile Middle East truce**, a **hawkish Fed**, and the **data** that will test it. For now they net out to a tentative bid for risk and a firm dollar, with oil's retreat the most concrete sign that the geopolitical fever has broken — at least temporarily. None of it is settled: the ceasefire is untested, inflation is sticky, and Thursday's payrolls could reset the week's mood in a single line. The calm is real, but so is its fragility. ## Sources - [US stock futures advance on Middle East de-escalation; oil supply concerns linger](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4607940-us-stock-futures-advance-on-middle-east-de-escalation-oil-supply-concerns-linger) - [Dollar poised for best month in nearly a year](https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/dollar-poised-for-best-month-in-nearly-a-year-eyes-on-jobs-data-gulf-tension-4764198)