It reads like a plot twist, but it is a real test of how prediction markets police themselves. Gabriel Perez, described as the operator of President Trump's teleprompter since 2016, allegedly used his advance knowledge of the president's prepared remarks to win more than $100,000 betting on what Trump would say, according to ABC News. The bets were placed on Kalshi, and the matter is now with federal regulators. These are allegations; Perez has not been criminally charged.
What Kalshi is
Kalshi is a "prediction market," an exchange, regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where people trade contracts on whether specific future events will happen. Instead of buying a share, you buy a contract that pays out if an event occurs, so the price effectively reflects the market's odds. Among Kalshi's offerings are so-called "mention markets": contracts on whether a public figure will say a particular word or phrase in a given speech. You might bet on whether the president will say "tariffs" during an address, for instance.
What allegedly happened
The problem is that whoever runs the teleprompter can see the full script before it is delivered. According to the reporting, Perez placed bets across more than a dozen Trump speeches, including a State of the Union, an address in Davos and a prime-time December speech, per ABC News. Investigators reportedly found an especially telling pattern: on occasions when Trump went off-script and skipped lines, the trader appeared to exit the corresponding bets mid-speech, consistent with someone who knew what the prepared text contained.
Trading on private, market-moving information you hold because of your job is the essence of insider trading. In securities markets that is illegal; on a regulated event-contract exchange, the same logic applies, which is why the case has drawn regulators' attention.
How it surfaced, and where it stands
Kalshi says its own surveillance flagged the unusual betting and it alerted the CFTC. According to CNBC, the CFTC is investigating and has discussed a settlement under which Perez would give up his profits and agree not to make similar trades, while federal prosecutors in Manhattan declined to pursue a criminal case. The White House said the employee has been placed on paid administrative leave and is cooperating, per the same reporting.
Why it matters beyond the headline
Prediction markets have grown quickly, and platforms like Kalshi now offer ever more granular contracts, including on the words of political speeches. That growth raises exactly the question this case poses: how do you keep markets fair when some participants have privileged information, and where is the line between a clever read of public signals and misuse of non-public knowledge? How the CFTC resolves the matter could set an early precedent for policing information advantages on these fast-growing venues. For an industry marketing itself as a legitimate, regulated corner of finance, being seen to catch and refer abuse is part of the pitch, and part of what regulators will judge. Boursel will follow the outcome.
