The back-to-school season is one of the year's big consumer tests, and this year it is flashing caution. US families with children in kindergarten through 12th grade plan to spend roughly 6% less per student, adjusted for inflation, than a year ago, according to a Deloitte survey, Reuters reported. Deloitte puts total spending at about $30.4 billion, or roughly $557 per student, down from $570 last year.

What the survey measures

A back-to-school spending forecast is an estimate of what households expect to lay out on the supplies, clothing and technology children need for the new school year. Deloitte's figure is based on a survey of 1,207 parents conducted in late May, Reuters reported. Because it is a survey of intentions rather than a tally of receipts, it is best read as a signal of mood and plans, not a final count.

Anxiety is the driver

The clearest theme is nervousness. Deloitte found that 57% of parents expect the US economy to worsen over the next six months, the highest share since the pandemic shock of 2020. That pessimism is showing up in how families budget: they are protecting spending on essentials like clothing and required supplies while trimming discretionary areas such as technology and eating out.

Crucially, spending less does not necessarily mean buying less. Much of the pullback looks like trading down, hunting for deals, choosing cheaper alternatives, and shifting to discounters, rather than cutting items out. Deloitte noted that a large group of especially price-sensitive shoppers intends to spend more than others by chasing bargains, a reminder that value, not absence, is the watchword.

The tariff effect

Trade policy is reshaping the calendar as well as the budget. The National Retail Federation reports that about half of back-to-school families are shopping earlier than usual, specifically to get ahead of price increases they fear tariffs will bring, the NRF said. By early July, a large majority of shoppers had already started buying. Pulling purchases forward to beat expected price rises is classic defensive behavior, and it can distort the usual seasonal rhythm that retailers plan around.

A note on the numbers

Different trackers measure this season differently, so the figures do not all line up. The NRF's forecast, which counts total dollars spent, points to a higher overall number than Deloitte's and even to growth in nominal terms. But its per-household figure still slips from a year earlier, which fits Deloitte's core finding: once you strip out price rises, real spending power is edging down. The two are measuring different things, dollars versus inflation-adjusted intent, and both are worth keeping in view.

Why it matters

Back-to-school is a bellwether. It is a large, non-negotiable spending event, so how families approach it says something about the health of the broader consumer, the engine of the US economy. The mix this year, softer real spending, deep pessimism and defensive, deal-driven, tariff-wary behavior, suggests households are bracing rather than splurging. For retailers, that points to pressure on both sales and margins as discounting does the heavy lifting. For the wider economy, it is one more sign that the consumer, still spending, is doing so warily. This article is informational and not financial advice.